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Basic Probability

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By itsRashad

The probability of a sample point is a measure of the likelihood that the sample point will occur.

Probability of a Sample Point

By convention, statisticians have agreed on the following rules.

  • The probability of any sample point can range from 0 to 1.
  • The sum of probabilities of all sample points in a sample space is equal to 1.

Example 1
Suppose we conduct a simple statistical experiment. We flip a coin one time. The coin flip can have one of two outcomes - heads or tails. Together, these outcomes represent the sample space of our experiment. Individually, each outcome represents a sample point in the sample space. What is the probability of each sample point?

Solution: The sum of probabilities of all the sample points must equal 1. And the probability of getting a head is equal to the probability of getting a tail. Therefore, the probability of each sample point (heads or tails) must be equal to 1/2.

Example 2
Let's repeat the experiment of Example 1, with a die instead of a coin. If we toss a fair die, what is the probability of each sample point?

Solution: For this experiment, the sample space consists of six sample points: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Each sample point has equal probability. And the sum of probabilities of all the sample points must equal 1. Therefore, the probability of each sample point must be equal to 1/6.

Probability of an Event

The probability of an event is a measure of the likelihood that the event will occur. By convention, statisticians have agreed on the following rules.

  • The probability of any event can range from 0 to 1.
  • The probability of event A is the sum of the probabilities of all the sample points in event A.
  • The probability of event A is denoted by P(A).

Thus, if event A were very unlikely to occur, then P(A) would be close to 0. And if event A were very likely to occur, then P(A) would be close to 1.

Example 1
Suppose we draw a card from a deck of playing cards. What is the probability that we draw a spade?

Solution: The sample space of this experiment consists of 52 cards, and the probability of each sample point is 1/52. Since there are 13 spades in the deck, the probability of drawing a spade is

P(Spade) = (13)(1/52) = 1/4

Example 2
Suppose a coin is flipped 3 times. What is the probability of getting two tails and one head?

Solution: For this experiment, the sample space consists of 8 sample points.

S = {TTT, TTH, THT, THH, HTT, HTH, HHT, HHH}

Each sample point is equally likely to occur, so the probability of getting any particular sample point is 1/8. The event "getting two tails and one head" consists of the following subset of the sample space.

A = {TTH, THT, HTT}

The probability of Event A is the sum of the probabilities of the sample points in A. Therefore,

P(A) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8 = 3/8

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